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To successfully complete this week’s assignment, please watch my lecture videos (Attached in powerpoint form), and watch YouTube video (i.e., Bayes’ Rule) ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sxKLrmt6fQ )
before starting if needed. Topic: Coach’s Decision: UF Women’s Basketball Match
Suppose your team (UF Women’s Basketball Team) trails by two points against University of Connecticut with 8 seconds to go and has the ball. Your assistant coach Victor suggests to attempt 3-point shot because the probability of winning the game with shooting a 2-point shot is lower (0.45 x 0.50 = 0.225 or 22.5%) than a 3-point shot (0.300 or 30%) based on the assumptions below. What is your decision? Should your team attempt a two-point shot or a three-point shot? What other factors might you need to consider?
Assumption 1: UF shot will end the game and that no foul will occur on the shot.
Assumption 2: UF’s 3-point shot historically has a 30% chance of success; 2-point shot has a 45% chance of success in most recent 5 games.
Assumption 3: UF has 50% chance of winning in overtime because this is your home game.
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